KYW's 2025 Sneaker Industry Primer 💫
Happy early New Year, folks!
Good morning, family! Welcome back to the Kicks You Wear. Thanks so much for reading. I really appreciate your time, not just today but all year long. This newsletter wouldn’t be anything without you.
HOUSEKEEPING: This will be the last KYW send for 2024. The newsletter will be back in January, starting with a 2025 mailbag!
Send me your biggest footwear industry questions here!Can’t wait to hear from you all.
Let’s dive in.
2025 is the year of the reset
Have you ever gotten your ass kicked so bad while playing a video game that you said, “Nah, this can’t be right”? There’s just no way you’re that bad. You had all the combos down!
You know what I used to do when that happened back in the day? Hit the reset button. Just reset the entire console. The vibes were not vibing.
That was Nike in 2024. The brand hit the button when it dumped John Donahoe. It needed to tear some things down to begin to build again.
The process is already underway now under Elliott Hill.
Nike has made several key executive hires to start Hill’s tenure, Footwear News’ Shoshy Ciment reports.
The brand has also begun trimming off big projects that may not have a future. The end of its partnership with RTFKT is the most prominent example.
We’ll likely hear about plenty of moves like these throughout the first half of 2025. Hill will lay the groundwork for what he and Nike hope will be the brand’s big “comeback.”
Let me be clear: I put that in quotations because the idea of a Nike comeback might be farfetched. It’s still the footwear industry leader by quite a bit, and its market share hasn’t dipped much over the last few years. Nike is still the No. 1 brand out there for teens, according to Piper Sandler’s survey.
But there’s no doubt that Nike isn’t the behemoth it used to be. Its competitors don’t fear it like they used to. Rivals poke fun at it. Upstarts tread in territory Nike once dominated.
Long story short, Nike just doesn’t feel like Nike anymore.
Hill’s main job will be to restore the feeling. It’ll be a long path forward, but here’s how I think he’ll go about doing it:
Strengthening wholesale channels: Nike has already begun repairing its relationships with wholesale partners like Macy’s, DSW and more. That process started under Donahoe, but Hill will continue it.
Re-centering its athletes: For most of the last decade, collaborations on high-heat retro models through celebrities like Virgil Abloh and Travis Scott have been Nike’s bread and butter. Those still work, but people are looking for something new.
Like Adidas has with the AE 1, I think Nike will try to develop that “something new” through its athletes and performance gear. Speaking of which…
Focusing on women’s sports: This is where I think “something new” will emerge. We’re already seeing a boom in women’s sports, and Nike is the sportswear brand in the best position to capitalize on it.
It has signature shoes coming down the pipeline from A’ja Wilson and Caitlin Clark and potential models for Juju Watkins and Paige Bueckers on the college ball level. There’s a lot the brand can do there. We’ve seen how well it can work through Nike’s push on the Sabrina Ionescu signature models. The blueprint is there.
The big picture: This is an industry-wide primer, of course. So the question is, how do these potential moves from Nike impact the rest of the footwear space? They could lead to drastic shifts in several directions.
Nike is the industry's bellwether. What it does — how it moves — determines how everyone else operates.
For the last few years, competitors have been able to take hold in areas Nike either lacked or completely overlooked. Nike's coming to reclaim that territory is a crucial development.
One of two things will happen:
Either Nike’s competitors will keep their footholds in these spaces moving forward and our current status will be considered the new normal or…
Nike retakes its position in these key areas and knocks its competitors back down a peg or two.
Consumers are more interested in varying styles and brands these days. I don’t know if there’s anything that can put that toothpaste back in the tube. But a resurgence from Nike could make things interesting.
Some areas to think about:
Brands like On and Hoka could make their way into the running space because Nike had completely abandoned them. There’s a big Nike run push coming in 2025. Can they still hold that ground when that happens?
Adidas has restabilized itself in North America thanks to its push in performance basketball with models like the AE 1, Harden Vol. 9 and more. Does that excitement last if Nike cooks with women’s hoops?
Speaking of women’s hoops, will anyone compete with Nike in the space after it really gets cooking? Other brands have established sneakers but don’t have the rosters to compete.
Puma has the Breanna Stewart line, which has been solid. Adidas also has some women-centric non-signature models out there. Reebok will push hard with Angel Reese and her upcoming signature model. But Nike is adding A’ja Wilson’s signature shoe to the mix next year. If it also has a Caitlin Clark signature shoe coming soon, the competition gets a little less heated.
Potential big swings from Nike over the next year could greatly change the industry. The question is whether Nike will take them. Given the unstable political and economic climate, it’ll be fascinating to see how the brand navigates this and how the rest of the industry follows its lead.
These are questions that we’ll get some answers to over this next year. When we do, it’ll reshape the industry as we know it from both a cultural and a business standpoint.
Five bold predictions for the year
This is shaping up to be a pretty exciting year in footwear. There were a lot of unexpected developments in 2024 that came to be. A lot of them were positive — particularly for the consumer. I hope this continues to be the case in 2025.
That said, here are five bold predictions from me for this upcoming year.
The deep dive into running continues: Running was a big thing for consumers this year. Run clubs have been on the rise for the last few years. They’ve become social spaces where people can meet and build relationships. That’s a big business opportunity. Running has always been a priority for sportswear, but I think we will see that on a large scale in 2025.
Tariffs don’t stop the cash flow: Despite concerns about inflation in 2024, consumer spending remained at a pretty high rate throughout the year. Tariffs proposed by President-Elect Donald Trump will inevitably bring inflation back into the conversation again eventually. But that might not slow early 2025 spending.
I believe those tariffs will happen, but I don’t think they happen immediately. Even if they do, pricing increases will take a bit of time to catch up with them.
The AE 2 isn’t as hot as the AE 1: This is no knock on the upcoming AE 2 signature model from Adidas and Anthony Edwards. The shoe might be awesome. There are leaked samples out there and I think they look fine. It’s just hard to do a sequel as well as the original. Sometimes, it happens! The Empire Strikes Back is better than A New Hope. But I’ve got to see it to believe it.
I don’t think this will mean a step back for Adidas basketball. The brand will be fine. When the AE 2 drops, it’ll still likely be riding the wake of the AE 1 wave. That shoe will bring Adidas a lot of good will from the public moving forward.
.Swoosh folds: Nike parting ways with RTFKT reads as a pretty terrible sign for the future of .Swoosh in my eyes. They were always two separate entities, but RTFKT’s departure from Nike shows me that it might be out on digital collectibles.
Collaborations fade away: Look. I don’t think we’ll ever live in a world where sneaker collabs don’t exist. But I think we’ve jumped the shark on them a bit — especially when it comes to the business of celebrities and macro influencers. There will always be room for true designers and artists like Joe FreshGoods, Salehe Bembury, Teddy Santis, Jerry Lorenzo and more. But I think the “Insert Celebrity Y partnership with Brand Z here” collabs will finally cool off.
BONUS: I do think Nike’s Travis Scott partnership fractures. It won’t end in 2025 — there’s more planned there for the year. But the rumors circulating last month out of ComplexCon didn’t come out of nowhere. Travis is costly and a bit of a headache. The partnership is also stale. The Jumpman Jack is nice, but it’s not as nice as it would’ve been three or four years ago before the Astroworld debacle. I think things have run their course. It might be time for both sides to move on if Nike won’t launch a Travis Scott brand.
What I got right in 2024
Let’s revisit 2024 for a sec, shall we?
By the numbers: I got two out of five of my predictions for 2024 right. That’s pretty solid, honestly. Especially considering the fact that I got the big one!
First: I told you John Donahoe would be out at Nike by the end of the year. Shockingly, I was right.
I promise I won’t keep telling you I told you so. Reading the tea leaves on this one wasn’t very difficult. Now that he’s out, the pressure is on for the brand again.
Second: I told you that consumers would keep on spending despite inflation concerns, and they did.
Inflation concerns were certainly valid. However, despite it being a huge consideration for people economically, the economy still hummed along as well as it had since we’d all gotten the pandemic stimmy checks.
Now, for my least favorite part of the primer.
What I got wrong in 2024
There’s nothing wrong with getting things wrong. I still hate it, though.
By the numbers: I’d consider three of the five predictions I made last year to be wrong.
First: I thought that Nike and StockX’s legal battle would end. I thought continuing it throughout the year would potentially be too damaging to one or both of these company’s reputations.
I was right that it was damaging — particularly for StockX, who Nike has taken every chance to (maybe even a bit unfairly) sully the aftermarket platform’s reputation.
I was wrong in that I thought it would simply end and the two sides would settle. It hasn’t ended and probably won’t for quite some time.
Second: I thought we’d see more sneaker boutiques around the country closing on a larger scale like we saw with Atmos, YCMC and more.
We didn’t! I’m very glad to be wrong about this one. Those operations are at the heart of sneaker culture. Without them, none of this would be what it is.
Third: I thought Nike would phase out the SNKRS app in favor of a more digital experience through its .Swoosh platform. That hasn’t happened at all. SNKRS is still around and I’m more skeptical about .Swoosh’s future than ever before.
All in all, not bad!
#TheKicksWeWear
OUR LAST ONE FOR 2024!!! Let’s get it!
First, the homie Scott kicked us off with the JFG 993s. Nice sock combo, too! Love this.
The homie Young Choi pulled up in the Air Tech Challenge IIs. Hot lava vibes. Love it. Heaters for the cold.
The homie Guru came through with the Zoom Flight 95s for the low! What a steal.
South Side came through with the Fear AJ4s completely FITTED. You hear me? Sheesh.
Then homie Jimmy sent us home with the Grinch Forum joints. My heart grew three sizes off these! Sheesh, my guy!!!
Way to close us out for the year, fam. Y’all did that. Peep the rest of the thread here:
That’s a wrap, folks! Thanks so much for rocking with me today. Appreciate you! Hope you have a fantastic holiday season. See you in 2025!
If you have any questions, comments or concerns for me, be sure to hit me up via email at mikedsykes@gmail.com or shoot me a message via Substack.
DON’T FORGET: We’re doing a top-of-the-year mailbag! Send me your questions about what’s coming in 2025, what to think about 2024 or whatever else you’re thinking about.
Until next time, folks. Peace and love. Be safe, be easy, be kind. Peace. We out.
-Sykes 💯
Excellent review. At which point do you think we can mark the beginning of the Elliot era in product? I don't know how long the footwear product cycle is, 18 months? That would mean 2026?
I almost thought the "farfetched" description was a pun on farfetch.com lol