The Kicks You Wear, Vol. 262 — 📥 The 2023 Sneaker Industry Primer
A welcome back with what I got wrong in 2022, what I got right and predictions for 2023
Gooooood morning, family! Welcome back to the Kicks You Wear. Thank you so much for rocking with me today! Appreciate you.
How was your holiday season? Hopefully it was fantastic and you got to spend time with the people you love. That’s how it should always be. I missed y’all. I definitely needed that break, though. I’m feeling recharged and ready to go.
By the way, we’re doing that monthly mailbag this year! I’ll keep the dropbox open all month until Wednesday, January 25. The mailbag will drop on the 27th. You can drop everything here on this link.
Let’s jump in.
Boy, 2022 was interesting
Every year is going to be a hectic year for a multi-billion dollar industry. When there’s that much money floating around in the air chaos comes with the territory.
With that being said, I don’t think anyone could’ve forseen the tornado of chaos that was the sneaker industry in 2022.
Where we’re at now:
One of the most successful sneaker collaborations ever between Kanye West and Adidas blew up to smithereens.
Global economic circumstances created massive headwinds for the industry at large. Inflation caused sneakers to drop on just about everyone’s priority list.
Inventory everywhere became stale and we ended the year with some of the deep discounts.
And to top it all off, Nike — the global footwear industry leader — went all in on Web3 by launching .Swoosh despite major headwinds.
It’s hard for anyone to say, definitively, the direction things will go in for 2023. But I’ll give it my best shot.
Personally? I’d say I’m bearish at this point.
Five bold predictions for 2023
I think the sneaker industry is in the middle of an evolution. We witnessed an era of massive growth at the tail end of 2020 and into 2021. In 2022 we returned to something that feels more normal, yet a bit tense considering the state of the global economy. That tension hasn’t dissipated yet.
With these circumstances in mind, I made 5 bold predictions for 2023.
Sales growth slows again: Let’s lay the facts out. The 19.5% sales increase the industry saw in 2021 slowed to just 2.7% in 2022, per the Business of Fashion. I think that drops again again — not to the same drastic dip, but just a tiny bit.
Inflation isn’t as bad as it once was and continues to dip, but things are still way more expensive than they were before.
Brands are still sitting on excess inventory. They were able to lose some of it in Q4 of last year — Nike, for example, moved a bunch of their excess during the holiday shopping season. That probably won’t continue through the top half of the year at least.
The “others” have a big year: We’re going to see more and more folks out there rocking non-Nike and non-Adidas/Yeezy styles. I’m talking Asics, Salomon, Hoka, Vans, New Balance, Crocs.
Those brands planted seeds in 2022. They gave people easier, less hyped options than the high heat stuff at Nike and Adidas. Those seeds planted take root in 2023.
We see influencer collaborations slow down: Collabs won’t end in 2023. But it’s hard to think that brands won’t react in a major way to Adidas’ Kanye West debacle this year. This is going to be a year where we see the brands lean a little less on big faces and a little more on their own product.
The Dunk dies: It’s not quite over for the Dunk yet as Nike will continue to feed us new models well into 2023. But it feels like it’s lost quite a bit of steam — both creatively and to the consumer. The Dunk models we got in 2022 were meh at best. The SBs weren’t very impressive at all with a few exceptions here and there.
Resale numbers dipped across the board. The eBay Dunk retro, for example, is reselling for around $100 over retail in many sizes. That was unfathomable two and three years ago.
There will be lots of pivots: There were so many sneaker companies that popped up between 2020 and 2021 to get in on the growth explosion we saw. Some of those companies are going to pivot. Some are going to fold.
We’ve already seen an example of this with Kyx World announcing the end of their sneaker rental service. More will come. It’s unfortunate. Hopefully, everyone can land on their feet.
Let’s revisit these next year. Speaking of revisiting things…
What I got wrong in 2022
WHEW this is not my favorite part. Last year for KYW’s sneaker primer I made predictions about what the sneaker industry would look like and how the major stories we were watching would turn out.
I broke it down into four things. One thing I think, one thing I know, one thing I hope and one thing we need.
The result: I was off on a couple of those things. Here’s what I was wrong about last year.
I said I knew the Metaverse would play a big part in the sneaker industry in 2023. It didn’t — at least, not in the way I thought. Were there brands still heavily invested in it? Yes, absolutely. But those investments didn’t pay off. People just…didn’t want it.
I also hoped Kanye would hold true to his plan of making Gap accessible to everyone. And…LOL. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Let’s get to my favorite part now.
What I got right!
I think it’s fair for me to say I’m shooting 50% from deep right now. I got two of my four big predictions right — at least in my view.
I said I thought the sneaker industry was due for a cool-off, and it did! Sneakers sales slowed down globally last year, as I pointed out above.
I will say I thought brands would inundate us less with collabs and hyped drops every weekend and HA. What a dummy I was.
I also said we needed to get back to appreciating general release models more as consumers. That did happen. The biggest drop of the year in the Lost & Found AJ1 was a general release drop. Teddy Santis’ New Balance GR collection did numbers. The Air Max 1’s new colorways were better than most of its collabs.
I’m not saying collabs weren’t there and present — they still took up most of the air in the room. But GRs were finally prioritized by consumers again.
Celebrate your wins, fam.
What’s droppin’ bruh?
Converse x TURBODRK Chuck 70 — Tuesday, January 10
New Balance MiUSA 990v2 “Pink and Purple” — Thursday, January 12
LeBron XX “Olive Green” — Friday, January 13
Air Jordan 1 “True Blue” — Saturday, January 14
Air Jordan 5 “Mars for Her” — Saturday, January 14
That’s all, folks! Happy New Year. Thank you so much for rocking with me today. I appreciate you.
Let’s chat again on Friday. Til then, folks. Peace and love. Be easy, be safe, be kind. And we out.
-Sykes💯