The Kicks You Wear, Vol. 426 — The cool off
Hoka has been on fire for the last few years, but now it faces a real test.
Good morning, friends! Welcome back to the Kicks You Wear. Thanks so much for reading today. I hope you’re having a fantastic Memorial Day and had a great weekend.
Got those 4s, folks! I’m really excited about this pair. I didn’t think I’d have much, honestly. Sneaker Gods looked out for once.
Let’s jump in.
When the going gets tough
There was a bit of a panic about Hoka at the tail end of last week after Deckers’ fourth quarter earnings call on Friday.
What’s happening: Investors are a bit squeamish after Deckers’ CEO Stefano Caroti described the headwinds the brand is facing in the current economic climate.
One challenge, you’d expect. The other is a bit of a self-inflicted wound.
Deckers CEO Stefano Caroti also mentioned the company’s cautious attitude about tariffs. This is the expected challenge.
There was an air of concern, Caroti presented despite only five percent of Hoka’s product being manufactured and imported from China.
The other was a bit of slowed growth in the direct-to-consumer space for Hoka, which has been a major strength for the brand over the last few years.
While the brand crossed the $2 billion threshold in DTC sales at $2.148 billion for the quarter, it was only a 1.4 percent increase year over year. Not a great look.
Considering the overall stability of the industry right now, which can only be described as unstable at this point, it’s sort of understandable that folks might be souring a bit on Deckers and Hoka. The tariffs have everyone shook these days, which is why the subject keeps popping up in the newsletter. And any sort of slowdown in sales should be met with caution.
But I find myself not being as concerned with the brand in this current moment.
Here’s why: Things might not be perfect, but it still feels like Hoka has motion in 2025.
We’re seeing the brand do interesting things and explore new territory to attract a new audience outside of the performance running sector, and I think it’s working.
Hoka’s Bondi line has been going crazy. The Bondi 9 was released at the top of the year and its reception seems to have the brand pleased.
The Marni x Bondi B3LS collaboration from earlier this year is also still one of the most notable sneakers to drop in 2025.
The brand also has some gas with the Mafate Speed 4 model.
These are small wins, sure. In the grand scheme, a model here and a collaboration there won’t change a brand’s fortunes overnight. But, to me, the energy behind these moves shows me that Hoka’s energy and thinking are in the right place.
Yes, but: Just because I’m not as concerned as others might be doesn’t mean that there’s nothing to be concerned about.
This isn’t 2020 anymore (thank goodness!). Nike and Adidas are both interested in wholesale again in a way that should have the rest of the industry shook. For years, the biggest brands in the industry ceded shelf space to smaller rival brands.
Today, DTC is done. The biggest brands in the sneaker world are ripping the band-aid off. Nike is back in the gym with Amazon, for crying out loud. Wholesale is back in a big way, folks.
The big picture: It’s felt like Hoka could do no wrong as a brand over the last few years. There was no amount of chunk in those shoes that could turn people away. They loved them — and rightfully so! Hoka is good. The foundation is laid. It’s time to build and figure out new ways to reach new audiences.
That means dipping into new wholesale channels. It means continuing to cook with silhouettes and collaborations. It means figuring out how to navigate the uncertainty of a marketplace impacted by tariffs.
The brand has to figure out how to go from being a 45-win team to a 60-win team. That’s not easy, but it’s doable.
Time to get to work.
What artificial scarcity looks like
We’ve discussed how New Balance’s 1300JP is one of the brand’s most legendary pieces. What we haven’t really talked about is how the brand built it into this.
The state of play: The homie
shared an article with me from Fashion United on how New Balance has used scarcity to its advantage with its Japan exclusive sneaker to keep it fresh and desirable.This process isn’t novel — it’s the same playbook that, say, Jordan Brand would use for a pair of Jordan 1s.
But New Balance isn’t typically considered a brand that cooks its books on general releases. The brand’s inventory is usually plentiful, even if expensive, because of New Balance’s high quality standards.
That isn’t the case for the 1300JP. These are treated like a collab, despite production being the same as a typical model.
How it works: There are three factors contributing to this.
Timing: The 1300JP only comes out once every five years, updating materials and molds in its archives periodically.
New Balance does this with models in its 99X line, too. For example, the New Balance 992 is back on shelves after briefly retiring in 2020.
Pricing: The $300 price tag is excessive, but it’s part of the deal with this shoe. It’s always been treated as a luxury item in Japan, where its popularity is at its peak. It was a luxury item at $100 when it was released in 1985. Now, it’s a collector’s piece at $300.
Exclusivity: While New Balance uses the same time-based scarcity trick on some of its core GR models, those aren’t as limited as the 1300JP is. New Balance intentionally releases a limited number of pairs with this model to keep its air of exclusivity alive after 40 years.
The other side: That’s a strategy that can work, but it can also backfire. It’s a delicate dance, as the article points out here:
“Industry observers note that such strategies require careful calibration. Excessive scarcity can alienate core customers, while too-frequent releases dilute the exclusivity premium. New Balance's five-year cycle appears to strike an optimal balance, maintaining desire while avoiding consumer fatigue.”
There’s a question about whether this strategy will work as well this time around. The market feels like more of an uphill battle than usual.
Yes, New Balance is more popular than it’s ever been. And that should be helpful for this shoe.
But there’s also a question about how many folks are willing to shell out $300 for this pair. That’s expensive, even given the history it comes with.
This is a collector’s item now. Collectors are usually more willing to pay extra for things they want. If you’re someone who has been obsessing over this shoe for the last five years, there’s probably not much that’ll stop you from copping these. With limited inventory, they should sell through.
Just don’t be surprised if it doesn’t happen as quickly as you may have thought it might.
Nike isn’t alone
We talked on Monday about Nike raising its prices. The Swoosh isn’t the only brand that’ll be seeing changes — Asics is reportedly doing the same, according to Nice Kicks.
What’s happening: Several of the brand’s key models will be seeing price increases ranging between $10 and $20 starting in the Spring of 2026.
I’ve reached out to Asics for confirmation on this data from Nice Kicks on Friday. The company has not responded as of Sunday evening.
Between the lines: While Nike’s price increases feel a bit more reactionary to the current state of these, the window in which Asics’ reported price increases are coming makes me think that these hikes were planned even before Donald Trump decided to upend the global trade network.
That makes sense considering how popular Asics has grown over the last year or so. The brand marked record sales and income numbers in its 2024 fiscal year.
A price increase of this magnitude feels more like Asics striking while the iron is hot rather than reacting to external forces, though that certainly would make sense as a justification.
The big picture: Regardless of the reasoning, it seems your Asics will soon be costing you a bit more. That makes me wonder if the folks newly introduced to the brand will actually stick around.
Guess we’ll have to wait a year to find out.
Where are the LeBrons, Nike?!?!?
Y’all remember a few years back when Nike did that whole LeBron sneaker voting thing? The brand had fans voting bracket style for what they thought LeBron James’ best signature sneakers were.
In the end, fans picked the “Ring Ceremony” LeBron 10 (blegh) as the best LeBron ever. We were supposed to get a retro of that shoe as a reward for the voting. That was back in 2021.
But, guys. It never came! The shoes were never released.
Complex’s Brendan Dunne pointed that out on the Complex Sneaker Pod this week and it hit me in the face like a hammer hits a nail. I’d completely forgotten this.
I thought Nike was using the voting to build out a LeBron retro line. Silly me.
RELEASE THE LEBRONS, NIKE. WE KNOW YOU HAVE THEM IN THERE SOMEWHERE.
What’s droppin’, bruh?
Nike A’One “Leo Lights” — Thursday, May 29
New Balance 1300JP — Thursday, May 29
Puma Inhale x A$AP Rocky “Team Silver” — Friday, May 30
Nike Kobe 6 Protro “Dodgers — Friday, May 30
Air Jordan 3 “Rare Air” — Friday, May 30
Air Jordan 1 “Varsity Red” — Saturday, May 31
That’s a wrap, folks. Thanks so much for reading. I appreciate you for giving me a bit of your time today.
If you have any questions, comments or concerns, give me a shout at mikedsykes@gmail.com or shoot me a message here via Substack.
Peace and love. Be safe, be easy, be kind. We out.
-Sykes 💯