The Kicks You Wear, Vol. 325 — 📩 The 2024 Sneaker Industry Primer
Happy New Year! Let's talk about what's coming in 2024 for the sneaker industry!
Goooooood morning, folks! Welcome back to the Kicks You Wear! Thank you so much for rocking with me today. I hope you’re well!
Happy MLK day! I hope you got some time off for today. I missed you guys. My holiday season was great. Had some good times with the family. Got to bring in the new year surrounded by loved ones. I hope you were able to do the same.
I was got busy over the break. I appeared in two Business of Fashion articles, which was extremely cool considering how much I love the publication. Check it:
To all the new subscribers who jumped in over the break, thank you! I appreciate you. Glad to have you here along for the ride. I hope you enjoy it!
Alright. Let’s jump in.
2024 is the year of control
This year is shaping up to be a big one for the tentpoles of the sneaker industry. Both Nike and Adidas have a ton of work to do in reshaping their identities for the future.
The situation: For decades, both have been sneaker industry leaders. Of course, Nike has been the most dominant brand. But over the last decade or so Adidas has turned itself into a true competitor.
Neither felt as impactful in 2023.
For Nike: 2023 was stale. It has a big innovation problem that it’s looking to solve.
Running and basketball were the two categories Nike hung its hat on for decades. From the Air Max line to Zoom and more, it always seemed to offer something new, shiny and cool for the consumer. But that hasn’t been the vibe over the last few years.
New tech like React has fallen flat. The ISPA line doesn’t get a second look from most folks. The brand has been able to lean on retro styles and mainstays to continue to carry it, but things are slowing. People are less interested.
The proof is in the pudding. The company slashed its overall financial outlook for 2024 after second-quarter revenue only increased by one percent at $13.4 billion year over year.
For Adidas: It was barely over a decade ago that the company took over the market by leaning on macro-influencer marketing and products. Today it’s completely lost control over the space. The Kanye West and Yeezy debacle are to blame.
Adidas removed Kanye West and Yeezy from its brand, but still needed to lean on the product to avoid a catastrophic shortfall.
In the meantime, the company’s partnership with Beyoncé completely fell apart after just three years.
The brand looked weak in 2023 because it didn’t seem to have much else to offer outside of its collaborations. What was once Adidas’ biggest strength became its worst weakness.
As a result: Smaller operations like On, Hoka, New Balance, Asics and more were able to flourish while Nike and Adidas took hit after hit. This dataset from Neustreet’s Anthony McGuire shows us what that looked like. Nike and Adidas ceded ground. The movement was slight, but still movement nonetheless.
So what’s next: This year will be the year that both brands try to tighten their grip on the market and regain control. Not only over one another but over their other smaller competitors, too.
Nike has already started making its moves. The company has been shuffling executives around for months now in search of its next piece of technology that will reshape sneakers moving forward.
We won’t see less retro products. The slate for 2024 is already set and there’s plenty of old goodness to come.
But I bet we see more of an emphasis on what’s next. New silhouettes. New technology. We’re already seeing it with Travis Scott’s upcoming signature model.
Adidas’ new CEO Bjorn Gulden has already brought plenty of energy to the company’s scene in the year and change he’s been around.
He seems to be willing to restore the brand’s commitment to foundational products now as opposed to the glamour and glitz of high-profile collaborations. That’s a good sign. Adidas needs to rebuild its catalog with interesting products.
Unlike Nike, it already has a relatively newer innovation in Boost material that has had success. It just needs to find more interesting ways to use it.
Plus, Adidas has interesting styles that have worked well in Europe that might be worth introducing to its US market as it works to replace that Yeezy gap.
The table is set for 2024. I think we’re living in a golden age of sneakers where there are so many brands pumping out so much goodness. We may never get back to that renaissance where Nike held the industry with a vice grip. Adidas might never rekindle the magic it had with Yeezy.
Regardless, though, the effort to create something better here is a welcome sight and a huge win for every consumer out there.
5 bold predictions for 2024
The footwear industry is set up for a transformational year. The consumer’s palette is as diverse as its ever been and there’s lots of room for growth from several brands out there. As inflation continues to cool, consumers will have more opportunities to explore the space. It should be fun.
On that note, here are five predictions for the footwear industry in 2024.
John Donahoe steps down at Nike: I won’t lie. This one feels like a long shot. But, man. Don’t you just get a vibe? The Q2 earnings call wasn’t the rosiest.
How I see it: Donahoe is the head coach of Nike right now. He’s shifted a bunch of new executives into a bunch of new places and fired others. It’s just like a coach firing its offensive and defensive coordinators. Were they the problem? Were they not good enough? We’re about to find out.
Consumers will spend more: Donahoe might catch a break in 2024. Last year was a tough year for the sneaker industry, mostly because it was just tough on the consumer to spend. Inflation eased, but prices on essentials like groceries were still expensive. Regular people put footwear on the back burner. That changes in 2024.
Inflation is continuing to cool. December’s 3.4 percent uptick aside, industry experts are projecting a downturn in 2024. That’ll be welcome news for Nike and the rest of the footwear industry after the struggles over the last two years.
More boutiques will close: This point feeds off that initial point. There are lots of boutiques out there that’ve been struggling to keep the lights on because of Nike’s big DTC push over the last few years.
It’s impacted big box spots like Foot Locker, obviously. But we’ve also seen spots like Atmos USA (a Foot Locker brand, BTW!) close its doors. Now, SNS is following suit with its New York and LA stores. There’s more of that to come in 2024, unfortunately.
Nike and StockX’s legal battle will end: Remember the lawsuit going on between Nike and StockX? It hasn’t made headlines in a while, but it’s been ongoing since mid-2022. I think it comes to an end this year. It’s gotten messy — stories like the one about 38 fake pairs that getting through StockX are extremely damaging to its reputation.
I don’t think it’s worth it for the company anymore. No one talks about its Vault NFT program anymore because no one really talks about NFTs anymore. It’s best to just settle and let bygones be bygones. So I think they will. Soon.
SNKRS gets the backburner: The SNKRS app has had an extended run as Nike’s hype vehicle. I think Nike might transition soon on that — particularly with the future planned for its (Dot)Swoosh vertical. As it searches for new ways to innovate, I can see Nike folding SNKRS and .Swoosh into one another.
Maybe it doesn’t happen this year, but it just doesn’t make sense for me for these two verticals to not work in concert with one another. Especially as the brand looks to consolidate and cut costs to the tune of $2 billion over the last three years.
We’ll revisit these predictions next year. Hopefully, I don’t look like an idiot. Speaking of…
What I got wrong in 2023
Of course, we have to revisit 2023. That’s unfortunate for me. Let’s just say some of your boy’s predictions looked ridiculous in hindsight. You can check out last year’s post here:
By the numbers: Out of the five predictions I made, two of them look silly today.
First: I said the Nike Dunk would die. Not only did it survive the year, it thrived. I was wrong.
There were so many SB Dunks dropped in 2023. Many of them were great. Born x Raised, Crenshaw Skate Club, the Yuta Horigome joints. That’s just the tip of the iceberg.
There were also some good GR SBs, too. That Mystic Red colorway is on my “circle back” list. So is the Court Purple flavor.
In 2024, the two-toned college Dunks are returning after a brief hiatus last year. So are more SBs. The Dunk has another year in it. People aren’t tired of them yet.
Second: I also said the death of the influencer was upon us. I thought after the Kanye fallout, brands would re-evaluate how much they lean on influencers for their products. I was wrong.
Adidas continued to lean on Yeezy, even after dropping Ye. Nike picked up multiple influencers like Megan Thee Stallion, Nigo and more. New Balance went crazy with Action Bronson. Jerry Lorenzo dropped his Fear of God x Adidas work, too.
There’s more to come in 2024, so this won’t be the year of the reckoning either.
Wish me some better luck this year.
What I got right!
Three out of five ain’t bad, y’all!
First: I said 2023 would be another slow growth year for sales across the board in sneakers. It was! The year was solid and steady, but there wasn’t a ton of growth across sectors. I think 2024 will be much better.
Second: I said the “others” will have a big year, meaning that other sneaker brands outside of Nike and Adidas would thrive. Those brands did.
We already talked about how Nike is working to catch Hoka and On in running innovation. We also saw a Saucony sneaker enter the Sneaker of the Year conversation. Do I need to say more?
Third: I said lots of companies would be pivoting away from sneakers. We saw that, both big and small.
I don’t think that’s a good thing, by the way. The more tools available to us to help us buy, the better. The sneaker startup era of 2021 has faded quite a bit, though.
What’s droppin, bruh?
Adidas Samba “Pre-Loved Ink” — Monday, January 15
Nike Air Force 1 “Black-White” — Tuesday, January 16
Asics x Papergirl Paris “Polka Dots” — Friday, January 19
Nike SB “Ishod” — Friday, January 19
Air Jordan 2 “Python” — Saturday, January 20
That’s a wrap, folks! Thanks so much for rocking with me today. I hope you enjoyed today’s read. If you have any questions, comments or concerns feel free to reach out to me by replying to this email.
Have a fantastic week. Peace and love. Be easy, be safe, be kind. We out.
-Sykes 💯
Always a great read Mike.